Supply-demand tight balance and macro expectations game, SHFE tin fluctuates at highs to hit a new phase high [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on November 13, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued its strong performance from the night session, hitting an intraday high of 298,500 yuan/mt and setting a new phase high. It maintained a gain of over 2% by the morning close. In the domestic market, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 293,300 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous day's closing price of 292,440 yuan/mt, and then hovered at highs. Meanwhile, LME tin also performed strongly, rising 1.42% overnight to close at $36,695/mt and remaining firm during the Asian trading session. The current tin price trend is primarily driven by both supply chain tightness and recovering macro sentiment.

From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. The potential resolution of the US government shutdown crisis boosted market risk appetite, while the fluctuating downward trend of the US dollar index strengthened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, providing a rebound opportunity for base metals. However, concerns over Sino-US trade policies and a global economic growth slowdown continued to limit upside room. In the short term, tin prices are expected to hold up well, supported by recovering macro sentiment and a tight supply-demand balance, but further upside is constrained by demand-side resistance to high prices. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is anticipated to continue consolidating at high levels in the afternoon, with a projected fluctuation range of 293,000–299,000 yuan/mt. Investors should closely monitor the recovery of Indonesian export data and downstream procurement dynamics.